By Basil E. Crouch
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Extra info for The Dark Side of the Moon - A Complete Course in Magic & Witchcraft
Sample text
Surprising but mundane events are not automatically miraculous. For the deist, who sees God as having created the universe but then wandering off in some other place to carry out other activities, there is no more reason to consider natural events as miraculous than there is for the committed materialist. For the theist, who believes in a God who is involved in the lives of human beings, various thresholds of assumption of the miraculous are likely to apply, depending on that individual's perception about how likely it is that God would intervene in everyday circumstances.
Science is progressive and self-correcting: no significantly erroneous conclusions or false hypotheses can be sustained for long, as newer observations will ultimately knock down incorrect constructs. But over a long period of time, a consistent set of observations sometimes emerges that leads to a new framework of understanding. That framework is then given a much more substantive description, and is called a "theory"—the theory of gravitation, the theory of relativity, or the germ theory, for instance.
By Bayes's Theorem it is now possible to calculate the "posterior" probabilities, and conclude that there is a 96 percent likelihood that the deck of cards you drew from was one of the "miraculous" ones. This same analysis can be applied to apparently miraculous events in daily experience. Suppose you have observed a spontaneous cure of a cancer in an advanced stage, which is known to be fatal in nearly every instance. Is this a miracle? To evaluate that question in the Bayesian sense will require you to postulate what the "prior" is of a miraculous cure of cancer occurring in the first place.
