By Melvyn Fuss, Daniel McFadden
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Extra info for Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications
Example text
The second most useful option would be to have the same set of pseudorandom numbers repeat. This can be done using a negative number parameter in the Rnd function. Replace the following line of code: uArray(rCt, 0) = Rnd() with: uArray(rCt, 0) = Rnd(-rCt) P1: a/b P2: c/d JWBT550-c02 QC: e/f T1: g JWBT550-Allman July 25, 2011 21:53 Printer Name: Yet to Come Random Numbers, Distributions, and Basic Simulation Setup 19 5. The final piece of code exports the array we filled to the Excel worksheet so we can quickly see the results.
However, what happens when we try to characterize processes that are not symmetric, like one that obeys a lognormal distribution? 14b. 14 (a) Normal distribution with symmetric confidence intervals to 68 percent. (b) Log normal distribution with skewed confidence intervals to 68 percent. P1: a/b P2: c/d JWBT550-c02 QC: e/f T1: g JWBT550-Allman July 25, 2011 21:53 Printer Name: Yet to Come Random Numbers, Distributions, and Basic Simulation Setup 43 In this case to properly characterize the nature of your statistical errors, each domain (+) and (–) must be analyzed separately.
Recall that a Wiener process has a mean of 0 with some constant variance. This means the stock price will simply fluctuate about So exp(0) = So . What we need to do here is to introduce a drift term, μ, that scales with time. 5). 5) Does this really work? 6). 6) since
