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East-West Trade and Finance in the World Economy: A New Look by Christopher Thomas Saunders

By Christopher Thomas Saunders

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R. Simens, and P. Voisin, "Coordinated Monetary Policy and the World Economy," Prevision et analyse economique 2 (October 1981) pp. 75-105; L. R. Klein, C. A. Bollino, and S. Fardoust, "Industrial Policy in the World Economy: Medium Term Simulations," Journal of Policy Modeling 4 (2, 1982), pp. 175-89 (2) See Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, The World Economy at a Crossroads: International Financial Crunch, Crisis or Crash? ) (3) The data and estimates of Soviet and East European balances of payments and debts used in this chapter for the period through end-1982 are those reported for the Wharton Centrally Planned Economies Service Balances of Payments and Debt Reports released during the first half of 1983.

The American deficit, when set againt the West German and Japanese surpluses, proved to be too much of a burden for the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange parities. Dollar depreciation and the establishment of the floating rate system induced inflation in the United States. This inflation spread to other industrial countries and was very significantly aggravated by the food and fuel crises of the early 1970s. When the major industrial countries were instituting restrictive policies in 1973 to stem inflation and work off the effects of commodity price speculation, the oil embargo, with vastly higher oil prices, acted as a massive tax imposed from the outside and generated a world wide business cycle downturn of very significant proportions.

Some European countries and Australia went far in providing social services. This makes their budgetary positions difficult. In the United States, taxes were cut excessively. This is a main factor worsening the deficit. The high interest rates stem from restrictive monetarĀ·; policies but also from investor tears of large public deficits. The high rates, combined with poor industrial activity, imposed enormous financial burdens on many developing countries in Latin America and Africa, Poland, Romania, and Yugoslavia.

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