By Herbert W. Hethcote
The affliction that got here to be referred to as received immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) used to be first pointed out in the summertime of 1981. via that point, approximately 100,000 folks within the usa could have been contaminated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). by the point the routes of transmission have been essentially pointed out and HIV was once confirmed because the reason behind AIDS in 1983, over 300,000 humans can have been contaminated. That quantity has persevered to extend, with nearly a million american citizens believed to be contaminated in 1991. The epidemic is of serious public future health drawback simply because HlV is infectious, reasons critical morbidity and dying in so much if now not all of these contaminated, and sometimes happens in really younger individuals. additionally, the price of remedy for an individual with HIV disorder is excessive, and the treatment wishes of HIV-infected people position a critical burden at the therapy structures in lots of parts. knowing and controlling the HIV epidemic is a very tough problem. The lengthy and variable interval among HIV an infection and medical disorder makes it tricky either to forecast the longer term value of the epidemic, that's very important for future health care making plans, and to estimate the quantity contaminated within the final numerous years, that's vital for tracking the present prestige of the epidemic.
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Extra resources for Modeling HIV Transmission and AIDS in the United States
Example text
This choice will often depend on the particular question that is to be answered. Simple models have the advantage that there are only a few parameters, but have the disadvantage of possibly being naive and unrealistic. Complex models may be more realistic, but they may contain many parameter values for which estimates cannot be obtained. The art of epidemiological modeling is to make suitable choices in the model formulation so that it is as simple as possible and yet is adequate for the question being considered.
It may be difficult to do better forecasting than done by the extrapolation and back calculation techniques mentioned in conclusion 4 and described in more detail in the previous section. Dynamic transmission modeling can explore possible future incidences under different scenarios, but the predictions are likely to be similar to those obtained by short-term forecasting using simple direct methods such as extrapolation. We are disappointed that the Workshop findings put so much emphasiS on the use of mathematical modeling to give forecasts.
2. "Mathematical and statistical methods that have been used for sexually transmitted diseases and other epidemics are onlv partially applicable to AIDS and HIV. The basic structure will be similar but empirical parameters and functions that characterize the new disease are required: intra- and inter-risk group mixing, partner relationships and duration, and biological transmissibility and infectivity during the period between HIV and AIDS. " 3. "Given a supply of biolo~cal and behavioral data of good auality.
